The Media, Katerina, and Hurricane Forecasters

A column in the Wisconsin State Journal has some important things to say about what's lacking in the media's wall to wall coverage of Katerina. I've reprinted it in it's entirety:

Hurricane Forecast And Tax Dollars Saved Lives
Wisconsin State Journal :: DAYBREAK :: D1
Wednesday, September 7, 2005
William Wineke
I received this fascinating e-mail Tuesday from Chris Velden, a member of the UW-Madison Space Science and Engineering Center, reminding me that the toll from Hurricane Katrina could have been far worse.

"In contrast to the media focus on all of the failings of agencies and officials, the one things that I have not heard mentioned, not even once, is that there were over three MILLION people evacuated out of the 'ground zero' zone before Katrina hit," Velden wrote.

"Why? Because the forecasts of this storm were spot on, and allowed ample time for most folks to get out of harm's way . . . Can anyone comprehend what this storm would have resulted in if the National Weather Service reports were not so good in this case?"

The Space Science and Engineering Center had a part in this good news. It takes satellite data and turns it into "useful products" to submit to the National Hurricane Center (this part has been reported in the local press).


I have sympathy for Velden's position. The fact is that thousands of people in the weather prediction business did their jobs competently this time, as they have so often in the past.

They don't get proper credit because things that go right aren't generally considered "news." In our business, we write about planes that crash, not planes that land safely. We write about people trapped on rooftops, not about people who evacuated to safety.

Nevertheless, it probably ought to be "news" that so many people are alive today because of the detailed predictions provided before Hurricane Katrina struck.

During the hurricane season, "Dr. Max Mayfield," director of the National Hurricane Center, becomes almost a family friend because of his omnipresence on the newscasts. We see the satellite photos of the hurricanes almost from their first waves and we track them across the ocean, across the coast and on to landfall.

Mayfield becomes the symbol of hurricane forecasting but, of course, there are hundreds of people like Velden behind the scenes who deserve credit.

While we're on this feel-good kick, this might also be a time to point out that the tax dollars we so hate to pay actually buy things.

In this case, they buy hurricane forecasts, which surely saved hundreds of thousands of lives on the Gulf Coast last week. They also buy the FEMA and military rescue workers who are now saving lives and restoring order to three states. They buy the hospital ships and the helicopters and the fuel for the rescue trucks and the tents for tent cities and the funds to put refugee kids in schools and, and, and. . .

Former President Ronald Reagan used to get cheers for asserting that "government is the problem" and, in some cases, it can be. But government is also absolutely essential to civilized life in this society.

The volunteer efforts now being waged are wonderful and will be meaningful to so many people who might otherwise be without hope.

But the ability of government to stick its hand in my pocket and extract enough cash to make things work is one of the reasons those people will be alive to even seek help from the volunteers.

For purposes of full disclosure, I'll say that Chris Velden is absolutely, positively not my boss. Or maybe he is. I can never remember.