Katerina

Hurricane season is truly upon us. All of the major news programs and papers have their coverage, their commentaries, their photos and audio recordings. Emergency managers, city planners, insurance companies, and even meteorologists are called in to the talk/radio circuit. All of them are here to talk about one thing of course, Hurricane Katrina.
Katrina was a monster. It might not have made landfall with its previous intensity, but the power and scope of its damage will impact the region for many months.
Even at their weakest, hurricanes are powerful storms. They bring with them powerful winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain. Most frighteningly, the winds pile up water against the coast raising the tides above normal levels to a frightening storm surge crested by strong waves. These combinations make hurricanes a truly scary and serious weather event.

How are they forecasted? What sorts of evacuation decisions are made? What makes hurricanes natural disasters though? And how can we prevent these disasters better? I hope to address, although not necessarily answer, all of these questions.

Hurricanes are predicted like other weather phenomenon. Satellite and aircraft observations measure the intensity and location of the storm. Powerful computer models using physical equations make a prediction as to it’s strength and position. Then, very experienced forecasters at the National Hurricane Center absorb all of this information in their most powerful brain, evaluate it all, and produce an official forecast. It’s a difficult job, but they lay their reputation on the line every six hours, for every storm in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Once landfall is imminent, what then? Evacuations are made for storm surge only. Once again, computer models calculate the storm surge caused by the expected storm, along with the surge from storms that vary slightly from the expected storm, and come up with an “envelope” of surge calculations. Thus, if the forecast is off slightly, or is slightly stronger than expected, additional people in danger will still be moved to safety. The surge models are very good if the storm forecast is good.

With these surge calculations, emergency managers issue an evacuation. Most people leave. Some do not. Evacuations are costly, scary, and difficult, particularly from a city like New Orleans. This brings me to my next point. Why are hurricanes such disasters? The forecasts aren’t perfect, but they are very good. Surprises are a matter of miles, not a matter of storm or no storm.

Well most of the problem, I think, is demographics. People live where they shouldn’t. Coastal populations have exploded, mostly during times of low hurricane frequency. People live in vulnerable locations that are difficult to leave with only a few causeways or roads in and out. Barrier islands are temporary. They move. They grow and shrink. They erode.

New Orleans is also extremely difficult. High ground is miles away, and escape is only possible on a few roads, with millions of people wanting to use them. Every hurricane season the Big Easy is a disaster waiting to happen. This year, it happened.

So now we reflect. My colleagues have sent emails evaluating the forecasts. They’ll continue to be evaluated. Forecasters will learn what they did wrong and right.
Emergency managers and government officials will learn how to manage the public better and how to communicate more effectively. Were the forecasts made early enough for them to make good decisions? Did the public listen?
City planners will evaluate the levees and the walls. Pass Christian, Biloxi, and other Mississippian cities that were devastated will examine their own city planning. They’ll figure out how to make building codes better, and how to get their citizens to safety faster.

Mostly though, we’ll respond, mourn and rebuild. We are amazing at helping others during crises. The donations will pour in to the Red Cross and the United Way. People will bring in water and food, and offer shelter to those in need. As the death toll rises, we’ll hear stories of hope and sadness. We’ll hear of people who couldn’t afford to leave, or who left too late. We’ll see vivid images of flooding and wind damage in the south, and we’ll know that perhaps a different disaster will bring us on the other side of the camera.
Then, slowly, the damaged cities in towns will rebuild. People will pull their lives together, or start a new one somewhere else. Our country is strong, and it will heal.

Hurricanes can’t be prevented. Their fury reminds us that we are vulnerable to the forces of this planet. All we can do is be better prepared and try to lessen the impacts of the next big storm.